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The Real Covid19 Figures: Translated from the Original Corriere della Sera Article

I find the article published on the Corriere della Sera newspaper by the italian journalists Milena Gabanelli and Simona Ravizza very interesting on so many levels. The two journalists compared the deaths registered in the past 4 years with the current data of March and April 2020. Those data show the underestimation of Covid19 deaths and how much are the real figures per country. So from here I have just translated the original article, available in Italian at this link. The data are provided by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)



Covid dead, all lies in Europe. Here is the real data

by Milena Gabanelli and Simona Ravizza (corriere della sera)


Every day all European countries (and not only) communicate official bulletins with infections and deaths. But, in particular on the number of victims, how reliable are Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands really? For Germany and Belgium it is not possible to know, because they do not yet communicate the data necessary to find out. According to official statistics, Italy is today the most affected European country after Spain. The dramatic death toll, now around 27,000, is even the highest. To understand, however, the real impact of the virus on our country compared to the rest of Europe, we need to know who is really telling the truth and how much the number of deaths has decreased. The data on the deaths from Covid-19, which are communicated to us daily by the Civil Protection, refer only to patients with a diagnosis ascertained by means of the swab, and therefore are lower than in reality. The same thing happens in the other European countries considered. An elaboration of the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) on the deaths recorded by the respective national statistical institutes, which Dataroom consults in preview, allows us to compare country by country the number of deaths this year with those from previous years. The difference should correspond to the deaths from Covid-19, but compared to the data communicated during the months of the epidemic there is a considerable distance. What does it mean? That they are the underestimated deaths, i.e. the patients who contracted the disease but were not swabbed and those who died from coronavirus side effects: from patients with heart attacks, strokes, aneurysms, or other pathologies, not visited and rescued in time due to full hospitals. Once this number has been identified, it is also possible to know which countries have cheated more in communication and which have the highest excess mortality rate per million people.

The comparison with previous years

The period taken into consideration between one country and another may vary by a few days, based on the update that each makes, but the data of the deaths photographed by the national statistical institutes between March and April 2020 are always analyzed with respect to the average of the past four years (2015-2019). To have a reliable comparison, obviously the last minute data are not compared. Let's forget, then, for a moment the daily bulletins and look at the dead recorded by the registry offices. Spain has 68,056 deaths against 39,981 in the same period in previous years. It is the country where growth is greatest: more 70%. The Netherlands recorded a plus 50% (22,352 versus 14,895). Italy follows with 78,757 deaths on April 4 against 57,882. The now well-known Istat data tell us that on an Italian level the average increase is 36% (we know, however, that the most affected is Lombardy with increases that reach tenfold in the municipalities of Bergamasca). The United Kingdom also registered a plus 36% (63,842 against 46,877). Then Switzerland plus 25%, France and Sweden plus 20%.

Fig. 1 - Deaths by Country (credit Corriere della Sera, Dataroom and ISPI)


ISPI = Institute for International Political Studies

ISCII = Institute de Salud Carlos II

ISTAT = Istituto Nazionale di Statistica

ONS = Office for National Statistics

NRS = National Records of Scotland

NISRA = Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

INSEE = Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques

CBS = Netherlands Statistics

SCB = Statistics Sweden

FSO = Swiss Federal Statistical Office


Legend Country Name:

Spagna = Spain

Italia = Italy

Regno Unito = UK

Francia = France

Paesi Bassi = Netherlands

Svezia = Sweden

Svizzera = Switzerland

Real (deaths figures) victims and deaths reported

This increase in deaths, in statistical jargon, is called "excess mortality". To take a step forward, it is necessary to quantify the distance between the additional victims that are counted this year and the deaths that are communicated to us every day by the Civil Protection and by the authorities of other countries. The comparison brings out a number: that of the victims not covered by the Covid-19 bulletins, or the underestimation. At the top of the ranking in absolute terms is the United Kingdom (minus 8,184), then Spain (minus 7,326), then Italy (minus 5,547), the Netherlands (minus 3,797), France (minus 3,679), Switzerland (minus 339) and Sweden (minus 298). ISPI researcher Matteo Villa notes: "Here we understand, again, what is missing for a more systematic approach to Phase 2: being able to keep track of the deceased is crucial to be able to understand how the epidemic is really proceeding in each country".


Fig 2. - Difference between the Covid 19 deaths declared and the real Covid19 deaths

(credit Corriere della Sera, Dataroom and ISPI)


Legend: Light red (additional deaths), Grey (Official covid19 deaths data) and Dark red (Underestimations of Covid19 Deaths)


Legend Country Name:

Spagna = Spain

Italia = Italy

Regno Unito = UK

Francia = France

Paesi Bassi = Netherlands

Svezia = Sweden

Svizzera = Switzerland

The underestimation of Covid-19 deaths

It is obvious that not all excess deaths can certainly be considered dead by Covid-19. But the number is the most reliable spy we can have on the real incidence rate of the epidemic on the population, the so-called "side effects", which includes deaths not from coronaviruses, but from patients who have not managed to be treated at a time when hospitals were overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients. Here we take into consideration the difference between real and reported deaths no longer in absolute terms, but in percentage. The result is the ranking of countries with the least reliable bulletins. The major underestimation is the Netherlands (104%), the United Kingdom (93%), France (41%), Italy (36%), Sweden and Spain (35%) and Switzerland ( 34%). "It is not true that Italy underestimates deaths much more than other European countries - underlines Villa -. Indeed, it is surprising to see that they are more or less all in line between 30 and 40%, except the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, which are instead very far from the others ". Overall, the truth is that the reported data is 49% underestimated. In short, one in three victims is missing.

Fig. 3 - Underestimation of Covid19 deaths (credit Corriere della Sera, Dataroom and ISPI)


Legend Country Name:

Spagna = Spain

Italia = Italy

Regno Unito = UK

Francia = France

Paesi Bassi = Netherlands

Svezia = Sweden

Svizzera = Switzerland

The impact on the population

The real data - that is, the deaths more than in previous years - also allow us to know which European country is really hardest hit per million inhabitants. Spain 663 deaths, Italy 586, United Kingdom 554, Netherlands 524, France 482, Sweden 295, Switzerland 246. "This ranking is much more realistic than we would get using the numbers communicated only," reflects Villa.

Fig. 4 - Number of real Covid-19 deaths per million people (credit Corriere della Sera, Dataroom and ISPI)


Legend Country Name:

Spagna = Spain

Italia = Italy

Regno Unito = UK

Francia = France

Paesi Bassi = Netherlands

Svezia = Sweden

Svizzera = Switzerland


The Belgium case


Belgium is a case in itself, even almost ignored. It is not possible to calculate the real number of deaths caused by the pandemic because the register with the total number of deaths in March and April is not updated. The Belgian government, however, says it is more transparent than the rest of Europe because, within its 7,200 declared Covid deaths, it also includes the untested symptomatic and suspicious deaths inside the retirement homes, where a silent massacre is taking place : almost 50% of the dead. Even if we take this number for good, everyone else remains out of the account. In fact, if you compare the only available data, or the average of the deaths of the years 2009-2018, you can see for example that from 7 to 13 April the number of Covid-19 deaths exceeds that relating to all other causes.



Fig.5 - Belgium Data from 2009-18 compared to the declared Covid-19

The fact remains that if we want to stick to the official bulletins communicated by all the countries, Belgium today has the highest number of deaths in the whole continent (and perhaps in the world): 597 per million people, against 480 in Spain and 430 Italy. A disastrous fact if you consider that it is not only a small country of the Union (11 million people), but represents the very heart of Europe. Brussels is the seat of Parliament and the European Commission, and the restart also passes from there. Yet, the country on which there is less information about pandemic management is also. This article was translated in English from its original version published on 28 April 2020 by Corriere della Sera https://www.corriere.it/dataroom-milena-gabanelli/morti-covid-tutte-bugie-dell-europa-ecco-dati-reali/1c28ca00-88b3-11ea-96e3-c7b28bb4a705-va.shtml


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Institute of Space and Astronautical Science

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency

© 2018 by Stefania Soldini

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